Germany's ambitious endeavour to modernise and digitise its rail network has hit a major snag. A recent report commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Transport reveals that the project's costs have doubled to a staggering 69 billion euros, a far cry from the initial estimate of 28 billion euros in 2018. The project also faces significant delays, pushing the expected completion date further into the future.
The escalating costs can be attributed to various factors, including the need for expensive upgrades to train technology, particularly the control systems required for automated operations. Additionally, infrastructure costs have surged due to higher construction expenses and measures to bolster network reliability.
The technological advancements envisioned in the project, such as further automation of train operations, improved connectivity, and enhanced energy efficiency, are undoubtedly ambitious. However, they come with a hefty price tag and have proven more challenging to implement than initially anticipated.
Despite the setbacks, the report maintains that the investment is economically viable in the long run. By 2070, the benefits are projected to reach 102.5 billion euros, mainly from reduced personnel costs for DB Netz, the company responsible for the rail infrastructure. The automation of operations will significantly decrease the need for train dispatchers, who currently rely on outdated mechanical systems.
However, the break-even point for these investments is not expected until 2064, meaning it will take several decades for the project to start generating profits.
Germany's aging rail infrastructure, including century-old signal boxes, poses a considerable challenge to digitisation efforts. The rollout of the modern European Train Control System (ETCS) is now expected to be completed by 2043, significantly later than the original target of 2030.
The report also criticises the poor organisational structure of the project, highlighting the lack of central control within the Federal Ministry of Transport. It recommends a more centralised approach, treating the digital conversion as a comprehensive software project rather than a series of regional initiatives.
Documents reveal potential budget shortfalls for digitisation projects between 2025 and 2030, raising concerns about potential cancellations or further delays. These financial challenges add another layer of complexity to an already intricate and costly endeavour.
