Moscow is making a concerted effort to entice major Western energy groups to resume operations in Russia by offering a range of profitable investment deals. Russian officials are pitching these opportunities as part of a broader strategy to convince companies, including those previously active in the post-Soviet era, that returning to Russia will yield significant economic benefits once sanctions are lifted and political tensions subside.
At the heart of the proposal is the promise of access to Russia’s abundant oil and gas resources, although this comes with the inherent risks of potential reputational damage and ongoing political and legal uncertainties. After freezing or severing ties following the invasion of Ukraine, companies like Exxon Mobil, BP, and Shell are now being asked to weigh the lucrative prospects against the high risks involved in re-entering the Russian market.
Among the major energy players, France’s TotalEnergies appears to be the most open to restarting its activities in Russia, provided the political situation improves. Some analysts suggest that smaller companies offering technical services, such as hydraulic fracturing and maintenance support, might find the conditions more favorable than the larger international giants. In contrast, American energy firms, buoyed by a booming domestic market in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Guyana, may see little incentive to return, given the higher risks associated with the current political climate in Russia.
While Moscow’s overtures are part of a broader effort to rebuild ties and secure long-term economic cooperation, analysts warn that the shift may not be beneficial for all parties. Even if sanctions are lifted, the intense global competition in the energy sector means that Western companies will have to carefully consider whether the returns from a re-entry into the Russian market justify the considerable risks.
