After enduring one of the toughest periods in its history, the global olive oil industry is on track to see prices ease significantly. Spain’s Deoleo, which produces popular olive oil brands like Bertolli and Carbonell, predicts that prices could halve from their record levels earlier this year. The forecast comes as the sector recovers from climate-related droughts and economic pressures that disrupted the supply chain.
At the start of 2024, olive oil prices in the European Union were 50% higher year-on-year, with the UK experiencing a 150% jump since the end of 2021. Spain, responsible for nearly half the world’s olive oil production, faced two consecutive years of drought that drastically reduced harvest yields and drove global prices to unprecedented levels.
However, Deoleo is optimistic about the current harvest season. “The outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored,” said Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Chief Sales Officer at Deoleo, in comments to CNBC. He noted that while the market for high-quality olive oils like Extra Virgin remains tight, the overall supply increase should ease prices.
Deoleo anticipates that prices will begin to decline between November and January, provided weather conditions remain favorable and the harvest progresses as expected. By the first half of 2025, prices could see a notable drop, contingent on continued stable production and stock levels.
Other Mediterranean producers face varied prospects. Greece is grappling with extended droughts, threatening its harvest, while Turkey, now the second-largest olive oil producer globally, is forecasting a record-breaking yield of 475,000 tonnes for the season.
Deoleo also points to shifting consumer behavior as prices normalize. High costs over the past two years led to reduced consumption, and as availability increases, prices at origin are expected to decline. The rate of price drops will vary across markets, depending on stock levels, competition, and the role of olive oil within the broader edible oil category.
Despite the positive outlook, Guzmán cautioned that the crisis is not entirely over, particularly for premium olive oil categories. The pace of price adjustments will also depend on future harvest projections, particularly for the 2025-2026 season.
This recovery marks a pivotal moment for the olive oil industry, promising relief for consumers while highlighting the ongoing challenges posed by climate variability in key producing regions.
