Russian agriculture is grappling with its worst crop loss in over two decades, as 38% of winter crops for the 2025 harvest are classified as weak or non-germinating. According to the ProZerno analytical center, only 31% of winter crops are in good condition—a stark contrast to 74% a year earlier.
The dire state of crops stems from the summer-autumn drought of 2024, which left some regions without rain from April to October, compounded by damaging May frosts that affected nearly one-third of Russian agricultural land. As a result, 6.47 million hectares of winter crops are in poor condition, the worst recorded since 2001.
The Central Federal District has been hardest hit, with nearly two-thirds of its crops either not sprouting or deemed unharvestable. The Southern Federal District, home to Russia’s most fertile lands, reports 44% of crops in poor condition.
The crop failures have driven food inflation to 10.2%, with staples like potatoes, cabbage, and buckwheat seeing price increases of 30–78%. To curb inflation and address domestic shortages, the Kremlin has imposed strict grain export limits, allowing only 11 million tons of exports from February to June 2025—down from 29 million tons during the same period last year.
Russia’s grain exports, a key geopolitical tool in recent years, are now curtailed due to fears of domestic unrest fueled by food price hikes. Despite having reserves sufficient for up to 15 million tons of exports, authorities have prioritized limiting outflows to stabilize local markets.
Experts warn that the continuing agricultural crisis, coupled with reduced export revenue, could exacerbate social and economic tensions in Russia as it grapples with the dual pressures of extreme weather and inflation.
