Spain and its popular Balearic Islands, including Majorca, are on track to experience a desert-like climate by 2050, according to a new study by researchers from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC). The study, presented at the International Meteorology Congress of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Barcelona, shows that climate change is significantly affecting the Mediterranean nation, pushing it toward extreme drought conditions.
The researchers predict a sharp decline in rainfall, up to 20% less than current levels, which will shift Spain from its traditional Mediterranean climate to a steppe or desert climate, as defined by the Köppen classification system. "The warming process resulting from climate change has been very pronounced in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, representing a true hotspot," the researchers stated.
Between 1971 and 2022, average temperatures across Spain and the Balearics have risen by 3.27°C, far surpassing the global average of 1.19°C. This rapid warming has expanded summer by an average of 36 days, with tropical nights (where temperatures remain above 25°C) and heatwaves becoming more frequent.
The study highlights a "strong link" between rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall over the past 50 years. Spain has experienced consistent droughts, with rainfall decreasing by 0.93 mm annually. At the same time, extreme rainfall events, particularly on the Mediterranean coast, have increased, leading to more frequent flooding, but these events do not compensate for the overall decrease in water availability.
By 2050, Spain's climate is expected to shift dramatically, with a "cold" steppe climate dominating 40% of mainland Spain, fundamentally altering the nation's environmental and economic landscape.
